Will Existing and New Home Sales Increase? What will Ben Bernanke say to Congress? And will Jobless Claims decrease after last week’s number? The AAPLTrader Economic Calendar for May 20, 2013

About the AAPLTrader Economic Calendar:  This Economic Calendar is compiled weekly to provide the AAPPLTrader community with concise information and education on upcoming releases and events that might impact the broad markets, indices, and sectors. Where applicable, new release information is accompanied by performance on relevant indices, sectors, select stocks, and ETFs to provide additional information toward developing potential new trade ideas. Most stock and ETF symbols are hyperlinked to Google Finance to provide and up to date chart. Although we are Apple-centric, keeping abreast on broad market news and activities is important for all investors.

Here are the highlights for this week’s economic calendar:  Monday ¦ Tuesday ¦ Wednesday ¦ Thursday ¦ Friday

[Note: There are no impactful releases set for Monday or Tuesday.]

Impact on Market Key: ♦ High,  ♦ Moderate

Wednesday will see the releases of Existing Home Sales, EIA Petroleum Status, and the FOMC Minutes. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify on the outlook for the U.S. economy before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

• ♦ 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales: This provides a gauge of the demand for housing and also the economic momentum. This narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Even though home resales don’t always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. — Existing home sales for March came in at a 4.92 million rate, down 0.6 percent from February. The March decline followed gains in January and February of 0.8 percent and 0.2 percent. The latest reading left sales 10.3 percent above year-ago levels. — The consensus mean estimate for this month is 5.00 M, slightly above last month’s 4.92 M. — Residential REITS of interest: Sun Communities (SUI) +20.0% , Colonial Properties Trust (CLP) +14.0%, Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS) +13.0%. REIT ETfs of interest: Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ), and SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR). Real Estate Services of interest: Realogy Holding  Corp. (RLGY) +21.0%, Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (KW) +10.7%.  Other ETFs of interest: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund (IYR) +17.9% YTD, iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund (IYR) +16.3% YTD,

• ♦ 10:00 AM ET, Ben Bernanke Speaks: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify on the outlook for the U.S. economy before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Market moving potential.

• ♦ 10:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status: The EIA Petroleum Status Report provides information on the weekly change in petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced locally or abroad. This weekly report gives an overview of the level of crude reserves held and produced by the U.S. both domestically and abroad. It is an indicator of current oil prices. The level of inventories reported in the EIA Petroleum Report helps investors to estimate the prices for petroleum products. Just like any other goods and services, prices for petroleum products are determined by supply and demand. Volatility of oil prices will affect businesses in the oil and refining industry. — Indices and Futures of interest: Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index (DJUSEN), NYSE Arca Oil Index (XOI), Crude Oil Futures (CLK13.NYM). — Sectors with some select stocks of interest: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ($REFNNG -0.73); Adams Recourses and Energy (AE) +64.1%, Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) +16.7%, Crosstex Energy (XTXI) +20.7%. — ETFs of interest are: United States Oil Fund (USO), S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL), United States Diesel-Heating Oil Fund (UHN), PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE), PowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO), SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector (XLE).

Thursday will see the releases of Jobless Claims, the PMI Manufacturing Index Flash, and New Home Sales.

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing or decreasing trend suggests a deteriorating or improving labor market. — Initial jobless claims spiked higher in the May 11 week, up 32,000 to a 360,000 level that is the highest since late March. There were no special factors to explain away the gain that lifted the 4-week average by 1,250 to 339,250 which, despite the increase, was still more than 20,000 below the month-ago trend to hint at improvement for the May employment report. — This week’s mean consensus is 345 K vs. 360 K last week.

• ♦ 8:58 AM ET, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash: Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing Index (PMIs) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing sectors. The flash index, usually released about a week before the final, gives a preliminary reading of conditions for the current month. — The Markit PMI manufacturing index for April posted at 52.1, nearly unchanged from the mid-month flash reading of 52.0. Order growth slowed significantly in the month as did employment. — This month’s consensus estimate is 50.8, slightly up from last month’s 52.0.

·

• ♦ 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales: New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances.  It is considered to be a lagging indicator of demand in the market and to affect mortgage rates. — New home sales rose 1.5 percent in March in an easy comparison with an unusually weak month in February. February fell 7.6 percent but followed a 14.1 percent surge in January. Low supply, the result of tight credit and supply chain constraints in the residential construction sector, continues to hold down sales. The number of homes on the market did rise but only by a slight 3,000 to 153,000, and the gain was not enough to improve the month’s supply which was unchanged at 4.4 months. — This month’s Mean consensus is 425 K, higher than the last report of 417 K. — Homebuilding Sector Index: $HMUBLD. Homebuilders of interest: Beazer Homes USA (BZH) +41.1% 6 mo., Ryland Group (RYL) +41.0%. KB Home (KBH) +30.0%. ETFs of interest: SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) +21.9% YTD, iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (ITB) +22.9% YTD, and PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction Portfolio (PKB) +20.4% YTD

Friday sees the release of Durable Goods Orders.

• ·         ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders: Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. These data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Durable goods orders tell investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy, and therefore a major influence on their investments. Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of industrial production and capital spending. – Durable goods orders in March declined 5.8 percent, following a 4.3 percent surge the month before. The transportation component declined 15.1 percent after a sharp 20.3 percent jump in February. Excluding transportation, durables orders decreased 0.1 percent after a rise of 0.9 percent in February. — This month’s Mean consensus is 1.1 %, in positive territory compared to the last report at -5.7 %.

Economic Calendar:

References: Investools.com, Blomberg.com, WSJ.com

Have a great week!

Mark Handley, Ph.D.

AAPLTrader Contributing Author

Continue Reading...

Andy’s combined posts

This blog post is a compilation of the great market information Andy posted today. This will be updated later to show Andy as author as well as other changes (like the title   )

1-This market is due for a pullback but refuses to go down? I have seen this twice (second time was called irrational exuberance). My slant. Most of the people saying ”this market’s going down” are not in it and ”want” to be. I noticed a few things that are ”huge” first the massive amount of money coming out of Bonds are being reallocated to ”stocks” second money in commodities are going into stocks (out of gold into stocks) third the Japanese move is ”desperation” if I ever saw one, again, Japanese investors want US assets (as do European investors). So the market? Corporate buybacks in 2012 totaled 385 billion 2013 could be higher (440 billion projected). Less supply add demand? That is my take on the market as I believe we are in the ”early” stages of a ”melt up”. Trade safe

2- Now that I posted a bit on my ”bullish” position I need to post some charts with ”clues” as to why I am bullish. First the TLT. The TLT chart shows allocation. All fund & institutional investors (rich guys & gals) have an allocation to stocks/bonds. Markets move (irrationally at times) when that allocation is shifted (say from a 60/40 mix to a 80/20 mix). The TLT is being ”sold”. Here is the chart with targets along with a chart of the ”dollar” which is causing much of the dislocation in bonds & commodities. This ”mix” change does not happen very often (once every 5 years or so). I do not track the dollar but the chart shows a multi-year breakout.

3- Now for commodities. For this I use the GDX it is an ETF of the miners which are tied to commodities (iron ore, copper, gold, silver etc). Money is flying out of these (they are a ”fear” trade) and into other assets. The solid dollar is causing this. For aggressive traders ”only”. If the GDX gaps down Monday it will cause an island continuation ”down” and should be traded with DUST (DUST returned 40% last week so this is ”not” for beginners). The island continuation and it’s significance can be seen on the TLT chart.

4- The banks are leading the market so a few charts of them with targets would be in order. With 45 billion a month being put on their balance sheets they should lead. I started with the BKX with a target (may be conservative) of 64-65. I showed the blue count which is ”wrong” and now realize I was trading a way to conservative count. When your wrong you must admit it and learn. I am so bullish on banks that I believe with wave 5 we could see 75 or greater (2007 high was 120). Some people use the XLF for banks so I will post a weekly of XLF. The first thing that jumps out is the RSI. When you see that level on a weekly I assure you ”any” correction will be bought. Eric will back me on that one.

5- Now for the overall market first the NYA (1,867 companies). Not at an all time high yet but a strong looking chart. I will post two SPX charts one daily one weekly. Presently I have a target of 1680-1690 (may be conservative).

6- Tech. I will post my ”favorite” chart. A monthly of SOX & an update on Apple. First the SOX. Rarely have I seen such a bullish chart as this one first the ”cup” then a ”bullish” wedge forming the handle (took 5 years to form). Now a breakout at 450. Next Apple. The 50% Fib at the gap will need to fill and ”develop” velocity to assault the neckline for the inverted head & shoulder to be viable. Any trade below 418 invalidates the pattern. Perhaps Tuesday after congressional hearing.

7- Today Ben Bernanke is giving a commensurate speech at a college next Wednesday he is in front of Congress (will be a market mover). Tuesday Tim Cook in front of Congress. Going to be a busy week in Washington and ”yes” a pull back can happen. Any pull back ”will” be bought. If you watch the TLT (money flow) you will be on the right side of the trade. As always. Trade safe

Continue Reading...

Will Personal Income Decrease? Will Pending Homes Sales Increase? And will US Manufacturing Continue to slow? The AAPLTrader Economic Calendar for April 29, 2013

About the AAPLTrader Economic Calendar:  This Economic Calendar is compiled weekly to provide the AAPLTrader community with concise information and education on upcoming releases and events that might impact the broad markets, indices, and sectors. Where applicable, new release information is accompanied by performance on relevant indices, sectors, select stocks, and ETFs to provide additional information toward developing potential new trade ideas. Most stock and ETF symbols are hyperlinked to Goole Finance to provide and up to date chart. Although we are Apple-centric, keeping abreast on broad market news and activities is important for all investors.

Here are the highlights for this week’s very busy economic calendar:  Monday ¦ Tuesday ¦ Wednesday ¦ Thursday ¦ Friday

Impact on Market Key: ♦ High,  ♦ Moderate

Monday will see the releases of the Personal Income and Outlays and the Pending Home Sales Index

•   ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays: Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Income is the major determinant of spending — U.S. consumers spend roughly 95 cents of each new dollar. Consumer spending accounts directly for more than two-thirds of overall economic activity and indirectly influences capital spending, inventory investment and imports. Increases (decreases) in income and consumption cause bond prices to fall (rally). As long as spending isn’t inflationary, the stock market benefits because greater spending spurs corporate profits. – - Personal income rebounded 1.1 percent in February after a drop of 3.7 percent in January and a 2.6 percent jump in December. The wages & salaries component gained 0.6 percent after declining 0.6 percent in January. – - Mean consensus for this report is expected to be lower than the previous reported 1.1%: at 0.4%.

• ♦ 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index: Developed by the National Association of Realtors, this is not only a gauge of the demand for housing, but also the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the pending home sales index which measures home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies. – - The pending home sales index in February slipped 0.4 percent to an index level of 104.8. The prior month was revised down slightly to a gain of 3.8 percent. Nonetheless, the pending home sales index for February posted at the second highest level in nearly three years. – - The mean consensus number for this month is +0.7% vs. the previous number of -0.4%. – - Indices, select stocks of interest, and ETFs are: Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Total Return Index (DWRTFT) -0.24%; stocks with 6 month rate of return ; Zillow, Inc. (Z) +49.3%, Realogy Holdins Corp. (RLGY) +38.5%, CBRE Group Inc.(CBRE) +32.5%; ETFs – iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR) -0.33%, SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR) -0.31%, Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) -0.32%.

Tuesday will see the releases of the Unemployment Cost Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, and Consumer Confidence.

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Unemployment Cost Index: This is a measure of total employee compensation costs, including wages and salaries as well as benefits. The employment cost index (ECI) is the broadest measure of labor costs. — The index is an easy way to evaluate wage trends and the risk of wage inflation. Wage inflation is high on the Federal Reserve’s enemy list. Fed officials are always on the lookout for the prospects of inflationary pressures. Wage pressures tend to percolate when economic activity is booming and the demand for labor is rising rapidly. During economic downturns, wage pressures tend to be subdued because labor demand is down. — The employment cost index for the fourth quarter was up 0.5 percent, marginally higher than the 0.4 percent rate in the third quarter, but details are favorable. – This month’s consensus is to remain at 0.5%

• ♦ 9:00 AM ET, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: This index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. — Home values affect much in the economy – especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. — The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) posted a 1.0 percent advance in January. This was on top of gains of 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent in the prior two months. The year-on-year rate showed an adjusted 20-city rise of 8.1 percent. – The mean consensus number for this month’s report is to remain at 1.0%

• ♦ 9:45 AM ET, Chicago PMI: This survey is somewhat local in nature, reflecting overall economic activity in the Chicago area. But many see the Chicago PMI as being representative of the overall economy. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. — The Chicago PMI in March was down 4.4 points to a 52.4 level that is still above 50 to indicate monthly expansion but at a lower rate of expansion than the 56.8 and 55.6 readings in the prior two months. New orders were still above 50 at 53.0 though the growth rate looked soft compared to February’s unusually strong 60.2. – The mean consensus for this month’s report is to remain at the 54.4 level.

• ♦ 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence: The pattern in consumer attitudes can be a key influence on stock and bond markets. Confidence impacts consumer spending which affects economic growth. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. — The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in March fell more than eight points to 59.7, to nearly fully reverse February’s gain from January. Higher payroll taxes, high gas prices and perhaps uncertainty over sequestration were negative factors. – This month’s consensus number is expected to be 62.0; higher than the previous level of 59.7.

Wednesday will see releases of the Motor Vehicle Sales, ADP Employment Report, PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, EIA Petroleum Status, and the FOMC Meeting Announcement.

• ♦ 12:00 AM ET, Motor Vehicle Sales: The US Automobile Manufacturing sector ($CARMFG), has grown +14.7% over the last 6 months. The electric cars company Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) +87.0%, and the RV manufacturer Winnebago Industries (WGO) +57.9%, represent the highest 6 month rate of return. These are followed by the car manufactures Ford Motor Company (F) up +32.0% and General Motors Company (GM) up +22.3%.  — Overall sales of domestic vehicles were 12.1 million units with the consensus for April to decrease slightly to 12.0.

• ♦ 8:15 AM ET, ADP Employment Report: The ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly snapshot of U.S. nonfarm private sector employment based on actual transactional payroll data. Market players have become accustomed to the excitement on employment Friday and understand the details of the monthly employment situation can help set the tone for the entire month. While economists have certainly improved their nonfarm payroll forecasts over the years, it is not unusual to see surprises on employment Friday. The ADP national employment report can help improve the payroll forecast by providing information in advance of the Friday employment report. — ADP private payroll employment rose only 158,000 in March which was far below ADP’s 237,000 count for February (revised). The Labor Department’s figure for private payrolls for March came in with a soft gain of 95,000. — The consensus estimate is for an decrease to 155,000 over the March 158,000.

• ♦ 8:58 AM ET, PMI Manufacturing Index: Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing Index (PMIs) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy. The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. — The index for April slowed a sizable 2.6 points from the final March reading to 52.0 versus 54.6 and was down 2.9 points from last month’s flash of 54.9. New orders showed growth but, at 51.8, a much slower rate of growth than March’s final reading of 55.4. With fewer new orders, manufacturers in the sample are working down their backlogs which, at a sub-50 reading of 48.8, contracted in the month. — The consensus level for this week is set at 52.0, a -2.6 drop

• ♦ 10:10 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Readings above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector. – The March ISM manufacturing survey slowed to 51.3 for a sizable decline from 54.2 and 53.1 in the prior two months. New orders fell to 51.4 for a 6.4 point decline from February and compared with 53.3 in January. New orders have been moving up and down with four sub-50 readings since June last year. — The consensus level for this week is set at 51.0, a 0.3 drop. — Major ETF’s expected to respond to Aprils ISM report are SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLI), Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLB)

• ♦ 10:00 AMET, Construction Spending: This release represents the dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects.  – Construction spending rebounded 1.2 percent in February after dropping 2.1 percent in January. Private residential construction jumped 2.2 percent after slipping 0.1 percent the month before. For the latest month, the new one-family component was particularly strong, gaining 4.3 percent, following a 3.6 percent boost in January. The new multifamily component fell back 2.2 percent but followed a robust 6.1 percent jump the prior month. Public construction gained 0.9 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in January. — The consensus for this month is 0.6%, down from the previous 1.2%. — Some sectors with select stocks of interest are: ($BLDRAW), Headwaters Incorporated (HW) +52.1% (6 m), Texas Industries (TXI) +49.2; ($BLDSRV +6.4%) Pike Electric Corporation (PIKE) +98.6%, Goldfield Corp. (GV) +77.4; (HMEBLD -5.3%) Kb Home (KBH) +43.2%, Ryland Group, Inc. (RYL) +34.2%, Lennar Corporation (LEN) +18.4%. (+/- % changes represent the last 6 months rate of return)

• ♦ 10:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report: The EIA Petroleum Status Report provides information on the weekly change in petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced locally or abroad. This weekly report gives an overview of the level of crude reserves held and produced by the U.S. both domestically and abroad. It is an indicator of current oil prices. The level of inventories reported in the EIA Petroleum Report helps investors to estimate the prices for petroleum products. Just like any other goods and services, prices for petroleum products are determined by supply and demand. Volatility of oil prices will affect businesses in the oil and refining industry. — Indices and Futures of interest: Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index  (DJUSEN) +0.52, NYSE Arca Oil Index (XOI) +0.15%. — Sectors with some select stocks of interest: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ($REFNNG -0.38); Northern Tier Energy Llc (NTI) +40.9%, Delek US Holdings (DK) +40.69%, Phillips 66 (PSX) + 36.8%, CVR Energy (CVI) +28.2%; ($OILGAS) -0.73  Hess Corporation (HES) +34.3 Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) +12.9, Chevron Corporation (CVX) +0.9%. — ETFs of interest are: United States Oil Fund (USO), S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL), United States Diesel-Heating Oil Fund (UHN), PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE), PowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO), SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector (XLE). (+/- % changes represent the last 6 months rate of return)

• ♦ 2:00 PM ET, FOMC Meeting Announcement:  The Fed determines interest rate policy at FOMC meetings. These occur roughly every six weeks and are the single most influential event for the markets. The interest rate set by the Fed, the federal funds rate, serves as a benchmark for all other rates. This announcement also includes brief comments on the FOMC’s views on the economy and how many FOMC members voted for and how many voted against the policy decision. – The FOMC is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. For some time, the focus will be on guidance language and comments on the status of the labor market. Debate on changes in quantitative easing is of key interest to markets but that detail likely will not show up until later FedSpeak and the FOMC minutes.

Thursday will see releases of the Jobless Claims, Productivity and Cost, and International Trade.

• ♦ 7:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing or decreasing trend suggests a deteriorating or improving labor market. — Last week’s initial jobless claims declined 16,000 in the April 20 week to a 339,000 level. The 339,000 level is the lowest since early March with the 4-week average, at 357,500, the lowest since late March. — The consensus mean for this report is 345,000; 6,000 higher than the previous report. Continued weakness in jobless claims may continue to weaken investor confidence in stock and see equity flow into bonds.

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Productivity and Costs:  Productivity growth is critical because it allows for higher wages and faster economic growth without inflationary consequences. In periods of robust economic growth, productivity ensures that inflation will remain well behaved despite tight labor markets. Productivity growth is also a key factor in helping to increase the overall wealth of an economy since real wage gains can be made when workers are more productive per hour. — Nonfarm business productivity for the fourth quarter fell a revised annualized 1.9 percent, following a gain of 3.1 percent in the third quarter. Unit labor costs growth jumped an annualized 4.6 percent, following a 1.9 percent drop in the third quarter. Year-on-year, productivity was up 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 1.6 percent the quarter before. — The consensus for Nonfarm productivity this month is 1.3%, up from the previous -1.9%.

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, International Trade: International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services. It is available nationally by export, import and trade balance. Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. — The U.S. international trade gap in February unexpectedly narrowed somewhat. The trade gap improved to $43.0 billion from $44.5 billion in January. Exports rose 0.8 percent after declining 1.2 percent in January. Imports were unchanged after rebounding 1.8 percent. — The consensus for the Trade Balance Level this month is -42.4%, slightly lower from the previous -43.0%. – US Dollar Index Futures (/DX); ETFs & ETNs; PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) -0.44%, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) +0.46, Barclays PLC iPath EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETN (ERO).

Friday will see releases of the Employment Situation, ISM Non-Manufacturing index, and Factory Orders.

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Employment Situation:  The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the numbers of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. — The employment data gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they’re getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest. — Nonfarm payroll employment in March rose a meager 88,000 after gaining 268,000 in February. Analysts forecast a 193,000 rise for March. Private payrolls increased 95,000 after rising 254,000 in February. Expectations were for a 200,000 gain. The unemployment rate edged down to 7.6 percent in March from 7.7 percent the prior month. – This month’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at  7.6%

•   ♦ 10:00 AM ET, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: The non-manufacturing ISM surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. — The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in March fell 1.6 points to a 54.4 level that indicates the slowest rate of monthly growth since July last year. Nonetheless, the latest reading was above 50, reflecting growth-but softer growth. New orders also slowed, down 3.6 points to 54.6. But backlog orders, unchanged at 54.5, continue to build in what is an especially good reading for this index. – This month’s mean consensus is 54.0 vs. the prior 54.4 level.

• ♦ 10 AM ET, Factory Orders: Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. — Factory orders in February saw a 3.0 percent rise and with January revised 1 full percentage point higher to minus 1.0 percent. Durable orders jumped 5.6 percent, revised 1 tenth lower from the advance report, with nondurable orders, benefiting from strong energy and food prices, up a strong 0.8 percent following a 1.4 percent gain in the prior month. More recently, new factory orders for durables declined 5.7 percent in March, following a 4.3 percent surge the month before. – The consensus estimate for Factory orders this month is for a drop to -2.8% for the previous 3.0%

Calendar:

References: Investools.com, Blomberg.com, WSJ.com

Have a great week!

Mark Handley, Ph.D.

AAPLTrader Contributing Author

Continue Reading...

AAPL Earnings Showdown

Apple investors are quiet this morning,
filled with fear and anxiety over AAPL’s
quarterly earnings announcement happening
this afternoon after the market closes.

Last time AAPL announced earnings, the
stock did a massive 54 point gap down.
Will that happen again?

Investors main concern is the slowing growth
for AAPL fundamentally and a lack of new
product innovation.

At 4pm Today, I am hosting a free live event
to cover the announcement. Register for Free
at AAPLTrader.com

Where will AAPL be tomorrow morning?

The AAPLTrader community is hosting a contest to see who can guess where AAPL will open tomorrow morning. Big prizes go to the winner. Make sure you get your guess in before the market closes today.

To calculate the expected range of an AAPL earnings gap, you can take the price of the at the money call for AAPL and add it to the price of the at the money put (both options are for the weekly options expiring this week. Right now the calls are trading for $16.00 and the puts are trading for $13.20. Add these two numbers together and you get the expected range of an AAPL earnings gap which is $29.20 in either direction.

This could bring us as high as $430 tomorrow or as low as $370. Above is a 3 month daily chart showing the gap range with a grey rectangle.

As many of my long term subscribers know, I will be safely sitting on the sidelines today and will look for a safe place get back into AAPL for a swing trade using the perfect setup technique here at AAPLTrader.

Trade Safe,
Micah

Continue Reading...

Will Housing Starts Continue their Comeback? Will Industrial Production Pull Back? And will Jobless Claims Continue in Decline? The AAPLTrader Economic Calendar for April 15, 2013

About the AAPLTrader Economic Calendar:  This Economic Calendar is compiled weekly to provide the AAPPLTrader community with education and concise information on upcoming US releases and events that might impact the broad markets, indices, and sectors. Where applicable, new release information is accompanied by 6 month performance information on relevant indices, sectors, select stocks, and ETFs to provide additional information toward developing potential new trade ideas. Most stock and ETF symbols are hyperlinked to Google Finance to provide an up-to-date chart. Although we are Apple-centric, keeping abreast on the broad market news and activities is important for all investors.

Here are the highlights for this week’s economic calendar:  Monday ¦ Tuesday ¦ Wednesday ¦ Thursday ¦ Friday

Impact on Market Key: ♦ High,  ♦ Moderate

Monday will see the releases of the Empire State Manufacturing, Treasury International Capital, and the Housing Market Index

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Empire State Manufacturing: The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. – - The Federal Reserve closely watches this report because when inflation signals are flashing, policymakers can reset the direction of interest rates. As a consequence, the bond market can be highly sensitive to this report. The equity market is also sensitive to this report because it is the first clue on the nation’s manufacturing sector, reported in advance of the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlooks survey, the NAPM-Chicago index and the ISM manufacturing index. – -  The Empire State manufacturing index in March was mostly positive at 9.24. The consensus mean number for this month is for a drop to 7.50.

• ♦ 9:00 AM ET, Treasury International Capital: These Treasury data track the flows of financial instruments into and out of the United States. Instruments tracked include Treasury securities, agency securities, corporate bonds, and corporate equities. TIC data have been issued for the past 30 years, but only recently, due to an enormous rise in foreign participation in our markets, have they grabbed the attention of the international financial markets. Although methodologically limited, TIC offers a measure of foreign demand for our debt and assets. Bonds and the dollar are most sensitive to the data, therefore bond and foreign exchange markets are more likely to react to this report than the equity market. Strong inflows (demand for U.S. securities) are needed to keep downward pressure on interest rates. Strong inflows also underpin the value of the dollar since foreigners must purchase dollars in order to buy our securities. A strong dollar helps to maintain stability in all U.S. financial markets. Since foreign ownership of U.S. equities is comparatively small, the equity market is less concerned about this report.

• ♦ 10:00 AM ET, Housing Market Index: This report provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the housing market index, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Whether the housing market index reflects new home sales or home re-sales, once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor and the builder. – - Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home sales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies. – - The housing market index dipped in March; home builders blamed lack of available lots and lack of available credit. The reports mean consensus is 45 vs. the prior at 44. Note: Housing Starts are report Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET.

Tuesday will see the releases of the Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production.

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Consumer Price Index: The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. The CPI is considered a cost-of-living measure since it is used to adjust contracts of all types that are tied to inflation. Labor contracts are tied to changes in the CPI; Social Security payments are tied to the CPI; and even tax brackets are tied to the consumer price index. The bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. – -  Prior CPI, month over month was 0.7% . The consensus for this report is 0.0%

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts: The housing starts report is the most closely followed report on the housing sector. Housing starts reflect the commitment of builders to new construction activity. Purchases of household furnishings and appliances quickly follow. The bond market will rally when housing starts decrease, but bond prices will fall when housing starts post healthy gains. A strong housing market is bullish for the stock market because the ripple effect of housing to consumer durable purchases spurs corporate profits. In turn, low interest rates encourage housing construction. – - Housing starts made a partial comeback in February, but more importantly, housing permits made a sizeable gain. In February, housing starts rebounded 0.8 percent, following a drop of 7.3 percent the prior month. This reports mean consensus is 0.930 M vs. 0.917 M prior. – - Indices and with select stocks of interest are: PHLX Housing Sector (HGX) +0.11%, ($HMEBLD +0.23); KB Home (KBH) +51.2%, Ryland Group Inc. (RYL) +34.1%, and DR Horton, Inc. (DHI) +18.5%; ETF’s of interest are: iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) +0.22%, and SPDR S&P Home Builders (XHB) +0.27%.

• ♦ 9:15 AM ET, Industrial Production: The Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. Also, industrial production is an important measure of current output for the economy and helps to define turning points in the business cycle (start of recession and start of recovery). The bond market will rally with slower production and a lower utilization rate and will fall when production is robust. Healthy production growth is bullish for the stock market only if it isn’t accompanied by indications of inflationary pressures. — Industrial production in February improved sharply. Overall industrial production jumped 0.7 percent in February after no change in January. The month’s mean consensus production, month over month, is expected to be slightly lower at 0.2%. – - ETF’s of interest are: iShares Dow Jones US Industrials (IYJ) -0.6%, Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) -1.20%, and PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) -2.45%

Wednesday will see the releases of the EIA Petroleum Status Report and the Beige Book.

• ♦ 10:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report: The EIA Petroleum Status Report provides information on the weekly change in petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced locally or abroad. This weekly report gives an overview of the level of crude reserves held and produced by the U.S. both domestically and abroad. It is an indicator of current oil prices. The level of inventories reported in the EIA Petroleum Report helps investors to estimate the prices for petroleum products. Just like any other goods and services, prices for petroleum products are determined by supply and demand. Volatility of oil prices will affect businesses in the oil and refining industry. – - Indices and Futures of interest: Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index  (DJUSEN) -1.4%, NYSE Arca Oil Index (XOI) -01.2%, Crude Oil Futures (CLK3) -3.5%. – - Sectors with some select stocks of interest: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ($REFNNG -1.14); Northern Tier Energy Llc (NTI) +40.9%, Delek US Holdings (DK) +54.5%, Adams Resources and Energy (AE) +53.2,  Northern Tier (NTI) +54.7, Phillips 66 (PSX) +38.9%; ($OILGAS -0.73)  Hess Corporation (HES) +34.4, Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) +10.2, Chevron Corporation (CVX) +7.9%. – - ETFs of interest are: United States Oil Fund (USO) -2.8%, S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL) -2.7%, United States Diesel-Heating Oil Fund (UHN) -1.3%, PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE) -1.42%, PowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO) -2.73%, SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector (XLE) -1.5%.

• ♦ 2:00 PM ET Beige Book:  This report on economic conditions is used at FOMC meetings, where the Fed sets interest rate policy. These meetings occur roughly every six weeks and are the single most influential event for the markets. Market participants speculate for weeks in advance about the possibility of an interest rate change that could be announced upon the end of these meetings. If the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on the markets can be dramatic and far-reaching. If the Beige Book portrays an overheating economy or inflationary pressures, the Fed may be more inclined to raise interest rates in order to moderate the economic pace. Conversely, if the Beige Book portrays economic difficulties or recessionary conditions, the Fed may see the need to lower interest rates in order to stimulate activity. Since the Beige Book is released two weeks before each FOMC meeting, investors can see for themselves at least one of the many indicators which Fed officials will use to determine interest rate policy, and can position their portfolios accordingly.

Thursday will see releases of the Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Survey.

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing or decreasing trend suggests a deteriorating or improving labor market. Last week’s initial jobless claims spiked 28,000 to 385,000 which was the sharpest increase of the year. The 4-week average also showed its largest increase and highest level of the year, up 11,250 to 354,250 (chart). The consensus mean for this report is 365,000; 20,000 lower than the previous report. Continued weakness in jobless claims may continue to weaken investor confidence in stock and see equity flow into bonds. 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures chart.

• ♦ 8:30 AM ET, Philadelphia Fed Survey:  The Philly Fed survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on market behavior. Some of the Philly Fed sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. The bond market is highly sensitive to this report because it is released early in the month and is available before other important indicators. The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey in March posted at plus 2.0, slightly over breakeven zero and indicating modest monthly growth. It was also well above February’s reading of -12.5. Click here for copy of March report. The consensus level for this report is 3.3 vs. 2.0 prior.

Friday has no scheduled events

Economic Calendar:

References: Investools.com, Blomberg.com, WSJ.com, MarketWatch.com

Have a great week.

Mark Handley

AAPLTrader Contributing Author

About the author: Ph.D. scientist with an interest and passion for trading stocks, options as well as engaging in technical and market analysis.

Continue Reading...