Here’s the replay from the AAPL Earnings Event today. We covered the foundation for becoming a consistent swing trader, long term and short term analysis on AAPL, PLUS – The debit vs credit spread — which one is better?
Thanks everyone for coming!
PS. Here’s the chat from the show
3:48 PM Micah: AAPL Earnings Show is starting in about 12 minutes
4:00 PM Jay: Im long with options hope it goes up
4:00 PM Micah: Here we go….
4:02 PM Martin: hello from Prague, Czech Republic
4:02 PM Micah: restarting to make sure sound is good
4:03 PM Martin: with all your publicity, you may start getting capacity issues Micah
4:03 PM Doornaert: hello from Belgium
4:03 PM Keith Mascheroni: hey from NYC
4:03 PM Randy: Hello from Australia
4:04 PM Ashi: I hear echo not sure about others
4:04 PM Andrea: Andy from Orlando, Florida
4:04 PM Ashi: Hi from San Jose
4:05 PM Keith Mascheroni: no echo here
4:05 PM Jay: no
4:05 PM Ken: yep
4:05 PM Frank: Hi from San Diego – good sound!
4:05 PM slawek: sounds good here
4:05 PM Cmgleason: No video
4:05 PM Martin: sound is fine
4:06 PM Randy: Sound is good
4:06 PM Cmgleason: Got it now
4:06 PM Jay: Apple to $550. Long call options.
4:06 PM Cmgleason: No video
4:07 PM Ashi: it’s good now for me too. I’d another browser open with aapl trader website:)
4:07 PM Randy: I’m in cash for AAPL
4:07 PM Martin: try checking your Flash installation Cmg
4:10 PM Rick: Hello from CT
4:16 PM Eric Gershon: is that dollar above the last wick of that candle or the close
4:17 PM Serguei Laham: Hi all This is Serguei From Huntington beach, CA
4:17 PM Merra: I’m Long AAPL, have Position in 520 & 560 call option
4:17 PM Eric Gershon: thx
4:18 PM alain: I don’t expect a big move today
4:19 PM Serguei Laham: I took some winnings (house money LOL) and bought a Jan 625/640 spread with a net debit of 90 cents,…. is that a real gamble or what?
4:19 PM Shelley green: better
4:19 PM don: Hope so
4:19 PM Jay: 20 point move after the close
4:20 PM alain: Unless they raise dividends /buybacks or announce china mobile…my upside target is 550 max 500 to the downside if they don’t meet upcoming guidance for next quarter
4:23 PM alain: Sergie…you are fine…you gotta remember that Apple has not traded in the past 6 yrs above the median/mean 12month target..right now is 550 so we need a blowout quarter /outlook
4:23 PM alain: 12month analysts target
4:24 PM Serguei Laham: Alain… that is why I called it a gamble with some free money
4:25 PM Serguei Laham: debit is bullish… credit is bearish bet
4:26 PM Russ: mostly bull put credit spreads
4:26 PM Holtzman: i prefer lower risk on debits, but i do credits on index
4:27 PM Ashi: for education purpose – the credit spread if goes into money – would this not be assigned ?
4:28 PM Ashi: that’s why normally, I invest in Call or Put as a single leg
4:28 PM Serguei Laham: at 75% wins your track record should be better than warren buffet in the long run
4:29 PM Curtis: I did a 300 x 315 bear call spread on NFLX today for a $10 credit; lookin good so far.
4:30 PM Serguei Laham: here we go stock going haywire
4:30 PM Micah: here we go
4:30 PM Jay: apple up
4:30 PM alain: up
4:30 PM kvd: wow
4:30 PM Nick: we’re off
4:30 PM Jay: WOOHOOOOO
4:30 PM alain: 8.26
4:31 PM kvd: dying
4:31 PM alain: not move
4:31 PM kvd: lost 10
4:31 PM alain: guidance is low
4:31 PM Jay: what the hell
4:31 PM slawek: holly
4:32 PM Nick: wow, volatile. sandbagged the guidance?
4:32 PM slawek: 491.2 Micah
4:32 PM Ashi: Apple sold 33.8 million iPhones in Q4
4:32 PM Jay: omg
4:32 PM alain: 55.5B revenue
4:32 PM Martin: Apple Q4 EPS $8.26 vs. $7.96 est.; Q4 Revs. $37.5B vs. $36.93B Est.
4:33 PM Serguei Laham: still too early to telll… this is speculation call is at 2 PM PST
4:33 PM Ashi: Apple sees Q1 rev range $55B-$58B
4:33 PM Holtzman: even the low end sandbag number is above estimates
4:34 PM Jay: that guidance isnt bad
4:34 PM Ashi: Apple sees Q1 gross margin range 36.5%-37.5%
4:34 PM Holtzman: good guidance, AAPL always gives low so if they are giving 3billion more than estimates one would think it is a good sign
4:35 PM Ashi: i think, it’s margin that is causing unrest to the mkt
4:35 PM Curtis: Good chance to pick up aapl cheap?
4:35 PM alain: well at least I got it right..between 500 – 550 ..
4:35 PM Ashi: the expectation was for the higher margin since iPhone 5S has a better margin than iPhone 5C
4:35 PM Serguei Laham: its still a toss up… all depends on call and forward looking guidance
4:36 PM Holtzman: if it opens low tomorrow, i will open a LEAP spread
4:36 PM Rick: Good chance to sell sell sell
4:36 PM alain: I think its gonna fill the gap tomorrow
4:36 PM Martin: I look forward to add at 480ish but won’t be disappointed if no chance to do that
4:36 PM Ashi: it’s not yet done. it may fill the gap today
4:37 PM alain: I would LOL if this opens exactly where it closed today tomorrow…
4:38 PM Randy: Does Heiken Ashi method you mentioned at the start work on daily time frame only or others also?
4:39 PM Curtis: MACD’s crossing now
4:39 PM Ken: what should we be looking for to get back in?
4:39 PM Randy: So do you generally use call options when trigger long on the method or sell put credit spreads on weeklies if the cycles ar 4-8 days?
4:40 PM alain: if apple hangs out around the 520..it should def fill the gap tomorrow
4:42 PM slawek: under 515 we wont fill gap to,orrow
4:43 PM Jay: i say apple fills the gap
4:44 PM Randy: Do your courses cover your method of trading in greater detail
4:44 PM Keith Mascheroni: thanks mica! always a pleasure
4:45 PM slawek: /NQ is holding intraday pivot
4:45 PM Curtis: Thanks, Micah! A good example of why you prefer not to trade earnings days!
4:46 PM Martin: the earnings call is still in progress, we may still hear some CM news and all is different
4:48 PM slawek: Micah will have his statue in Spring Lake NJ his system made me a better trader
4:49 PM Agha: So what did the market did not like?
4:49 PM Agha: Yes Micah has made me a better trader as well
4:50 PM Holtzman: Definitely helped me, and still learning.
4:50 PM Martin: the best money ever spent on trading – that is my AAPL subscription!
4:51 PM Agha: I told you so. It hard to say what the market will not like
4:52 PM Jay: Micahs the best, thanks for the show
4:52 PM Martin: Thanks Micah and have a nice evening all!
4:52 PM Micah: all good everyone, thanks for your kind words
Hope you enjoy this FREE Report Eric just finished…
And don’t forget about our AAPLTrader Earnings Event:
When: October 28th at 4pm ET
Look forward to seeing you there. We will be sharing some of the new AAPL trading tricks discovered in the last few months.
Micah & Eric
PS. We would love to hear your thoughts, comments and ideas about AAPL earnings and our report… feel free to drop us a comment below. Thanks in advanced.
10:28 AM Micah: Welcome Everyone, we will start the AAPL Earnings Live Event at 4pm ET Today!
10:29 AM Micah: Feel free to introduce your self in the chat and where you are watching from, ie: California, Dallas, NY…
1:20 PM AAPLTech: California
3:51 PM Julian: London UK
4:00 PM Micah: Starting in minute… here we go!
4:02 PM Julian: Are actually going to trade the earnings?
4:02 PM Julian: As in real money?
4:03 PM slawek: hello everyone
4:03 PM Will: Hi from Houston
4:05 PM steve skolnick: nj
4:05 PM Martin: Hello from Prague!
4:05 PM Chris Emery: Chris…NY
4:06 PM Jay Khandeker: Hello from San Diego, CA
4:07 PM Deb Klatt: Hi from Clearwater Beach Florida
4:08 PM LindaB: Glad to be back! MD~
4:12 PM Eric Gershon: from NJ still trying to figure out how to get the pointer with the cloud on it with TOS thx
4:17 PM Robert Tober: Hi Everyone
4:17 PM slawek: all I have to say is that one day I will build Micah a statue for all the money I made thanks to this system
4:18 PM Merra: Tanks
4:19 PM Eric Gershon: Thx I know that but you have the pointer in the cloud I can do either or but not together I will have to play around with that some more I guess …no problem
4:20 PM Julian: salwek how much money have you made?
4:22 PM slawek: Julian, after one email i got from AAPL trader about break out i made 20k in one day
4:22 PM Eric Gershon: thx
4:23 PM James F. Heck III: Apple will surprise everyone by slinging over 30 million phones based on strong growth in China and India
4:23 PM slawek: other than that i play a lot of credit spreads i always have AAPL trades on, but you can apply this analyses to GOOG AMZN PCLN
4:25 PM steve skolnick: also 20 Mill coming off contract vs 8 mill the year before
4:27 PM Jay Khandeker: Micah, what are the other lower indicators on your chart?
4:27 PM Agha: Slawek what was the trade for making 20K
4:27 PM Eric Gershon: do we need your ma’s to confirm this
4:27 PM slawek: Im looking for it Agha i think it was somewher in febuary
4:28 PM Jay: I’ve made several hundred grand thanks to the heikan ashi. I always used thinkorswim but I never knew what the heikan ashi was but I never clicked on it lol. Thanks to Micah I learned about it.
4:30 PM Ken: there it is
4:30 PM LindaB: Big move
4:30 PM Jeffrey Goldstein: apple out
4:30 PM Jay: Its up
4:30 PM slawek: yesss
4:31 PM Jay: WOW
4:31 PM sepulveda: 7.47 vs 7.30
4:31 PM LindaB: Reports Q3 EPS of $7.47 vs $7.31 Est; Revenue of $35.30B vs $35.09B Est
4:32 PM James F. Heck III: 31 million iPhones
4:32 PM Donald George: 440 was high atm option
4:33 PM James F. Heck III: 14.6 million iPads and 3.8 million Macs
4:34 PM Agha: Missed on Ipads
4:35 PM aortega: Apple beats on earnings but fourth-quarter revenue outlook falls short
4:35 PM Julian: plz
4:36 PM Agha: I think they are again guiding conservatively
4:36 PM Agha:
4:37 PM aortega: agree…We need new products!!!!
4:37 PM Agha: But Gene Munster was also predicting a flat December Qtr
4:40 PM slawek: Agha the trade i was talking about took place feb 7th feb 8th
4:41 PM Eric Gershon: getting a new hi above
4:42 PM Eric Gershon: new hi 439.68
4:42 PM Agha: Hey Slawek was that an option trade or straight stocks?
4:42 PM Jay: reset it
4:44 PM slawek: Agha i got me bunch of straight calls,
4:44 PM Jay: Havent seen apple up 4% or more since november
4:45 PM Agha: Ok thats what i was looking for because I am now also buying straight calls and then leg into a spread
4:45 PM Agha: Thanks
4:45 PM Ken: does tos tell us the gamma on a vertical
4:48 PM Marco Lecca: Hello everyone, on a day like today what happens after this spike with AAPL and the heikan ashi system does this resets and star tsp
4:49 PM Agha: Wow AAPL up 20
4:50 PM Marco Lecca: Sorry I meant that starts a new cycle
4:51 PM slawek: if we open tomorrow above $435 it will create shock gap and will send us only higher unless it wont lol either way me love it
4:53 PM Martin: it reminds me of your famous quote Slawek – hurry up and wait and see…
4:53 PM Jay: Last time apple gapped up after earnings was January 2012, had a 200 point run for what its worth.
4:53 PM slawek: lol Martin
4:55 PM mrlami: ha! glad i bought a call before close (gamble play)
4:58 PM Agha: Is it time to backup the truck. I guess Andy prediction was correct
5:00 PM steve skolnick: so what is the current aapl channel
5:02 PM steve skolnick: so is it going to re test from the btm
5:03 PM Robert Tober: Micah, How does a time correction differ from sideways trading
5:04 PM sepulveda: Thanks Micah. Great session. Got to hop on the conf call.
5:04 PM steve skolnick: no the previous large channel
5:06 PM swingtrader: we need to get above 515 to be back in the longterm channel
5:07 PM steve skolnick: thanks going to the earnings call
5:07 PM Robert Tober: Terrific educational session. Have a great week and thanks for all you do for all of us
5:08 PM danielashline: missed the beginning. Will a recording be posted?
5:08 PM Deb Klatt: Thanks Micah,,, Great info..
5:09 PM Micah: You are all very welcome
5:09 PM Marco Lecca: Thank you
AAPL Earnings Live Event Replay
- Using Option Volatility with Earnings Gaps
- The #1 Option Spread for AAPL: Bull Call Spread
- Live Coverage of AAPL as the fireworks go off
- And much much more…
Where you long AAPL over earnings with stock or options and make a pile of cash?
If so, let us know what strategy you did, we’d love to hear about it…
For more info on the Apple Earnings Press Release, Go Here!
Thousands of traders are using our powerful trading tools to
make more consistent money trading AAPL… learn how you can, too! Get a Live Demo, Register Here!
Pass the link to this Earnings Replay along to your friends and fellow traders
The time again has come for AAPL to announce its quarterly earnings and for us to have our LiveStream Earnings Event and Contest…
Buzz on the Street has a consensus estimate of $7.31 EPS.
AAPL Earnings Contest
What will AAPL’s opening price be this Wednesday morning after earnings?
How To Enter: Comment below with your answer
Winner gets to choose any option training from our Option Certificate Program!
All entries must be submitted before 4:30pm ET Tuesday, July 23rd.
Yesterday I was doing some technical analysis
on a few of my favorite stocks.. GOOG, AMZN,
and PCLN. What I discovered may impact
these three stocks for the next year!
Each one of these 3 stocks are sitting
at the top of a long term channel.
(See Charts Below)
I found this interesting for a couple reasons,
Firstly, we are hot into earnings seasons…
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) announces after
the market closes today!
The second reason is that the last time these three stocks hit this point they entered into a 4 to 6 month time correction, sometimes longer. Click the chart above to expand a 5 year chart of GOOG. Notice the two grey ovals showing where GOOG has hit the top of the trend and also what followed last time… a long time correction! I’m interested in hearing your thoughts, do you agree with me?
If I’m right, then I think covered calls will be an excellent strategy going forward for those who own shares.
How to Trade Covered Calls on AAPL is a free 4 part video series you can watch to learn more about his strategy.
Here’s two ways I think GOOG could play out from here:
1. GOOG could gap up on earnings tonight above the channel and run up to $1,000. If this happens we could see the stock run very quickly and then pull back violently to retest its long term channel.
2. GOOG will enter a sideways phase giving it time to digest the last year of gains (from June 2012 to now, over $350 in gains) What do you think?
PCLN is forming a similar pattern
Here’s a 3 year chart of Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN), again the same pattern highlighted by the three grey ovals. After large moves the stock tends to cycle in a sideways channel for 4 to 6 months.
What do you think, is it time for PCLN to take a break?
Here’s another example with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) on a five year chart showing it approaching the top of its long term channel. AMZN and PCLN have been absolute beasts this year with the straight bullish action. Could it be time to take a rest?
What’s your experience trading these stocks, do you think they are set for new highs or ready for a break?
I’m thinking that AMZN and PCLN have the same possible outcome as I stated above with GOOG. Either they gap up and run in the next week after earnings, or we enter into a sideways time corrective phase. Only time will tell at this point. I will be watching GOOG closely this afternoon to see how it impacts the NASDAQ futures and AAPL after hours.
Do you have a friend that trades any of these stocks? Send them a link to this article.
You’ll help me and them out. Two birds. One stone.
PS. AAPL earnings is this Tuesday, July 23rd at 4pm and AAPLTrader will be covering the earnings call with a live show I’m hosting. More about this on Monday!