Archive for the ‘AAPLTrader Blog’ Category
May 18, 2012 (AAPLTrader)
Today marks a very important day in Apple History, everyone who has been patiently waiting for a correction to buy, now has the opportunity to do just that.
A Technical Look
Looking at Apple Technically, it’s clear that we’ve had a major correction since the April 10th highs of $644.
Investors who subscribe to my Swing Trader Report and LiveStream Updates got the official bearish swing trader alert on April 12, four days off the highs at $622 and again on May 1st at $582.
Notice the chart presented on the right. The yellow parallel lines represent the three-year channel Apple traded in and broke out of after its monster earnings announcement on January 24th, 2012. We are now coming back down to retest that channel. Often times in technical analysis stocks break out of channels and then reverse back to retest the break out point before bouncing to make new highs.
The grey shaded oval between $500 and $520 represents the retest of the channel and a fantastic place to start thinking about getting long AAPL.
Subscribers to my Premium Access will get my official buy alert on AAPL the day before it happens, similar to the official buy alert I sent out to my subscribers on November 28th, 2011 to buy AAPL at $377 just before it’s $267 run up.
A Fundamental Look
Apple is now trading in the mid $530’s, which is under 13x last year’s earnings and near an 8-year low P/E ratio.
Many believe it will fall all the way down to $500 a share, which would give it a 12.18 P/E ratio. These are very attractive numbers for any investor. With its current price, Apple is now trading at a lower valuation then it was when I initiated my buy alert back in November.
Seasonality
After crunching the numbers on Apple’s price chart. Between April 1, 2007 and May 3, 2012, Apple generally declines in May and June just before The Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, which is scheduled for June 11-15, 2012 in San Francisco. The correction we are seeing right now is seasonal, and has nothing to do with Apple’s fundamentals.
The Future of Apple
My One Concern
The only concern I have right now is all the problems arising with Europe right now. The Euro is at extreme lows, while the dollar rips to new highs! The Euro falling deeper into recession could hold back American stocks like Apple Inc.
The Future Outlook
Looking forward at the end of the year, it’s not crazy to believe that Apple will be back up at its all time highs. If you extend its price chart out into 2013 you can see that a price target of $700 or higher is completely within the realm of possibility.
Micah Lamar -
Co-Founder of AAPLTrader.com – The fastest growing community of Apple Traders in the World.
Full Disclosure: Micah was net long AAPL stock when this article was published.
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May 17, 2012 (AAPLTrader)
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) beat earnings today by approx. 5%, with an actual of $1.09 over an estimate of $1.039 per share. The total net sales for WMT reported $112.3 billion, which is an increase of 8.6% since last year.
It seems at the current moment, WMT is at a resistance point trying to break through to the upside, passing the previous high of $62.63 that was on 2/1/2012. The momentum is there right now for Walmart, they reported good business numbers, and have a good momentum to the upside.
Since the beginning of 2012, Walmart has been in a range of about $57-$62. If we do not see a breakout to new highs for the year, then we can see a fall back into the channel. I do not see Walmart springing out past $62.50 due to the price being out of the norm for them, but if it does, they must be improving business the right way by increasingly sales & income, which are attracting investors towards their company.
On Mar. 1, 2012, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. approved an annual dividend of $1.59 per share, which is approximately a 9 percent increase from the $1.46 per share paid during fiscal year 2012. The annual dividend of $1.59 per share will be paid in four quarterly installments of $0.3975 per share, according to the following record and payable dates:
Record Date Payable Date
March 12, 2012 April 4, 2012
May 11, 2012 June 4, 2012
August 10, 2012 September 4, 2012
December 7, 2012 January 2, 2013
During the Q1 earnings report, president and CEO of Walmart Stores Inc., Mike Duke, makes the following statement;
“Our overall performance reflects the success of Walmart’s business model: diving the productivity loop, leveraging expenses and investing in price leadership. We believe that the momentum throughout our business positions us very well for the rest of the year.”
I know there are some people out there that do not support WMT due to the labor disagreements that are held overseas and that their experience with products are not so good. Some say they will just stick to supporting the Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), which yesterday reported first quarter net earnings of $697 million, or $1.04 per share. Target beat the estimate of $1.008 by reporting $1.11 actual, and also pays a dividend of $0.30 per share while showing great numbers in business as well.
Walmart is clearly the bigger company but may have a “target ” on its back. I think both companies are successful when it comes to critical mass and we’ll see if Target’s upgrade from garden centers to grocery can help the company capture some of Walmart’s market share.
Eric Consiglio – AAPLTrader.com
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May 15, 2012 (AAPLTrader)
BMC is a software company that is located in Houston, Texas and was founded in 1980 by three people. Scott Boulette, John Moores, and Dan Cloer. They used their names to create the name of the company, BMC.
Why is BMC so important?
Approximately 96% of the Forbes Global 100 and 81% of Fortune 500 companies rely on BMC Software to manage their business services and applications across distributed, mainframe, virtual and cloud environments. With the leading Business Service Management platform, Cloud Management, and the industry’s broadest choice of IT management solutions, BMC helps customers cut costs, reduce risk and achieve business objectives.
The total revenues for fiscal year 2012 were $2.2 billion, and the net earnings excluding special items were $562 million. BMC employs over 6,500 workers in over 120 countries and is a member of the S&P 500.
BMC Software is focused on helping their customers design and implement complete solutions to meet their specific business needs. They have formed strong partnerships with more than 500 technology companies worldwide including:
- Accenture
- Cisco
- Salesforce.com
- VCE
- Dell
- Red Hat
- NetApp
Together these partnerships form a network that can deliver all elements of a complete Business Service Management solution–across the globe.
BMC is technically showing a bullish trend with an increase in volume. With a trend like this moving healthy and strong, I can see a target set for about $50 in early July of this year. And if this momentum keeps up, we might even see this number at the end of this month.
Eric Consiglio- aapltrader.com
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May 11, 2012 (AAPLTrader)
Some tech leaders today are Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) and Verizon Inc. (NYSE:VZ) were also very strong today.
A few financial companies that are down include JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS).
JP Morgan Chase is in a bit of a pickle and rumor has it they are being investigated by the SEC (Securities Exchange Commission) about their $2 billion dollar trading loss. Smells a little fishy for me, but you never know. Sometimes smelly fish can be the best sushi when done right.
I thought that it was interesting that the banks went down a bit after FOMC chairman Ben Bernanke did a speech on “Banks and bank lending” yesterday. Here are some highlights of the speech:
- Risk-based capital and leverage ratios for banks of all sizes have improved materially and are significantly above their previous highs.
- The latest CCAR (Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review), conducted earlier this year, demonstrated that most of the 19 firms would likely have sufficient capital to withstand a period of intense economic and financial stress and still be able to lend to households and businesses.
- The banking sector overall also has substantially improved its liquidity position over the past few years. Indeed, large banks in the aggregate have more than doubled their holdings of cash and securities since 2009.
- The credit quality of large banks’ assets is looking better as well, although the improvements have been uneven across types of loans.
- The profitability of large banks has been edging up as credit quality has firmed and banks have trimmed noninterest expenses.
- Consequently, although the condition of the banking system is improving, demand for credit generally has remained sluggish, and the creditworthiness of some borrowers that would normally turn to banks for loans remains impaired.
- Residential mortgage lending has been particularly sluggish.
- Conditions in the banking system–and the financial sector more broadly–have improved significantly in the past few years.
- The economic recovery has facilitated the rebuilding of capital and helped improve the quality of the loans and other assets on banks’ balance sheets. Nonetheless, banks still have more to do to restore their health and adapt to the post-crisis regulatory and economic environment.
Weird Bernanke comes out and says all this good commentary about banks at the same time JP Morgan loses 2 Billion. Doesn’t really add up! I’d stick with the big tech companies for now and maybe a little lunch time with Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) but please… stay away from the banks.
Eric Consiglio (AAPLTrader.com)
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Apple Trader is “The Single Best Website for Apple traders
and a heckuva neat twist on social networking, all in one site. ”
Cody Willard – MarketWatch.com
What is Apple Trader?
AAPLTrader.com is a social networking website for people who trade and invest in Apple Inc.
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What do I get when I sign up for Free Membership?
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As seen in
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